Estrela da Amadora v Sporting CP

Estrela da Amadora v Sporting CP 
Estádio José Gómes 
Saturday April 11th, 2026
Matchday 28

The warm up

It's April 2nd as I write and we're now entering what can technically be referred to as the business end of the season. Not for the first time in recent years at this time in the campaign my enthusiasm for the Jogo Bonito is starting to wane and has all the remaining power of an Alan Ruiz hand into the face which is of course a nice segue into Matchday 28 as the lions make the short trip to take on Estrela. 

For as long as a football has been kicked in the professional game, smaller clubs have bemoaned that decisions go against them when playing the bigger teams and if we rewind the clock back to this fixture from last season, if you heard an Estrela fan bemoaning exactly that same point then you couldn't really argue with them. The difference I find from a Sporting perspective, compared to say that of… oh I don't know, let's say of an FC Porto (*pulls pin out of hand grenade) is at least we have the common decency to admit to being the beneficiaries. Tomorrow night we play Santa Clara at the José Alvalade for the first game back after the international break. A fixture now infamous for the longest VAR check in history to award a penalty that felt like one of the greatest heists since the Brink’s-Mat robbery of 1983. Or maybe that was when we were awarded the corner in the league game from which Hjulmand scored the winner when it clearly should have been a goal kick. There is probably an element of truth that these things have a way of evening themselves out because Sporting have themselves been on the end of some controversial officiating and I'm not just talking about Conrad Harder's suspension for saying yeah or Luis Suárez’s hand wringing action in the match against Porto. However, all told if you're a fan of Estrela or of Santa Clara I'm sure you'll say that's bollocks, we still don't get anything, and well you're probably right.

In the main I have sympathy for a lot of referees who's name isn't João Pinheiro. I read an article the other day about the added pressure they're facing when a VAR check is ongoing and the TV camera is focused directly on them and originally when I read it I thought that makes a lot of sense. Now with the added benefit of time I'm thinking actually that's complete and utter nonsense because the people doing the work aren't on your TV screen at all. The referee just has the job of telling players to fuck off and sticking his finger in one ear to try hear better what's being said in his other one. Putting that aside they still have a hard job to do, one which oddly they're not helped much by their colleagues who never show them replays in real time when called to the pitch side monitor and instead are forced to watch twenty angles of the same incident in super slow motion which inevitably makes things always look worse. Sometimes though the opposite occurs and even slowed down it looks equally as innocuous as it did in real time which brings me nicely back to the penalty given against Alan Ruiz where Diomande did the poor sod up like a fucking kipper. Somehow in last season's fixture the referee Gustavo Correia managed to show to Estrela; eight yellow cards, two reds and awarded two penalties against them in the 3-0 win for Sporting in a game that didn't really carry any malice with it at all. 

This is a fixture that normally guarantees goals and three points for the lions. At the José Alvalade in November it finished 4-0 with Sporting 3-0 up with only 24 minutes gone through goals from Quenda, Suárez and Fresneda. The Colombian completed his brace in the second half. 

The fixture before was the aforementioned 3-0 with a Gyökeres brace of penalties sandwiching another Quenda goal. Estrela played with ten men from minute 33 to minute 86 and then nine until the final whistle. 

They did at least find the net when they met in the November of early 2024, although unfortunately for them Gyökeres found it four times in total and Araújo scored in addition to make it a 5-1 defeat. Rodrigo Pinho had made it 2-1 in the 33rd minute and that now means Estrela have now gone 237 minutes without scoring against Sporting. 

In March 2024 they actually took the lead through a Leonel Bucca header on 14 minutes but found themselves 2-1 down by six minutes before half time with goals from Paulinho and Nuno Santos taking all 3 points back to Lisboa. 

Oh and if you're ever wondering if the fixture list is copied and pasted every season then we'll wait and see when the Alvalade fixture is scheduled in the 2026/27 season because if it's November something is definitely fishy. November 2023 the lions took the lead through Bragança. Estrela not only equalised four minutes into the second half but were 2-1 ahead after 9. Two goals in 8 minutes from Marcus Edwards and Paulinho turned the game back on its head for a 3-2 win. 

So in 450 minutes of football Estrela haven't kept a clean sheet, failed to find the net in their last two outings, scored 4 times thus averaging a goal every 112 and a half minutes and have conceded 16 times which is basically a goal every half hour so put your money in a 3-0 Sporting win and maybe if you're feeling adventurous add Quenda for an anytime goalscorer. Or maybe they're now due a goal, so make that a 3-1 win. In all seriousness do not follow my betting advice unless you're doing a modern day Brewster's Millions. 

With three home games remaining Estrela will be hoping for a large travelling contingent as their attendances continue to decline. In their first season in the top flight they had a total of 74,847 bums on seats at an average gate of 4,403 which feels pretty good to me. Now if you're new to Portuguese football or just happen to be reading this randomly, I promise I'm not being facetious when I wrote that. Portugal is a small country in terms of land mass and population. Three clubs dominate the footballing landscape, more commonly known as Os Três Grandes; Sport Lisboa e Benfica at the top, Sporting CP and FC Porto. There are a lot of relatively small clubs in the top flight of Portuguese football which is a fact that often gets overlooked, Estrela being one such example. Of Os Três Grandes two of those clubs are Lisboa based and the distance from Estrela’s home to the Estádio José Alvalade is just shy of six miles so they're having to compete for eyeballs from two of the three biggest teams in the country, but not only that, in addition you've also Alverca and Casa Pia locally and whilst not in the top flight anymore Belenenses to boot. Throw in Estoril who are half an hour down the road and to me an average of 4,403 doesn't feel bad at all in my books. However, 2024/25 fell to 62,972 at an average of 3,704 and this season the novelty seems to be well and truly wearing off with a total of just 38,361 spectators after 14 games at an average of just 2,740. Estrela v Sporting in March 2025 had a gate of 7,031 and March 2024 had 6,764. Porto are still to visit but April 2025 had a gate of just 4,273 and September 2023 was 5,976. Famalicão, who they face in their last home game had an attendance in August 2024 of 4,769 which probably had an inflated figure for start of season enthusiasm and some sunshine and just 3,137 in October 2023. So being uber optimistic on their behalf, with Porto going for the title they may see 7,000 for that game, throw in another 7,000 for this game and 3,500 for Famalicão and a best case scenario in each is going to land them shy of a total of 56,000 spectators this season for an average gate of around 3,300. If you wonder why Portuguese clubs constantly have to sell their talent then there's your answer in a nutshell. Estrela have had to sell the likes of André Luis, Sidny Lopes Cabral, Luan Farias, Kiolanda Gaspar, Danilo Veiga, Tiago Gabriel and Oumar Ngom to balance the books in recent seasons. 

Incidentally as I've fallen down a rabbit hole, it transpires that figure of 3,704 for last season when you discount Os Três Grandes was the fifth highest average attendance in all of Portugal. If you exclude Os Três Grandes the top flight average for the Liga was 5,306. Liga 2 saw an average of 1,600. 

Going into this weekends fixtures Estrela are 13th, six points ahead of Nacional who they play next away from home. Their record played 27, won 6, drawn 10, lost 11, GF 33, GA 45. Those ten draws the most of any side in the top flight. Their six point gap to Nacional who occupy the relegation play off place is owed entirely to their comparative home records. Estrela’s reads played 14, won 4, drawn 5, lost 5, GF 20, GA 21 and gives them precisely their current six point advantage. Of the 33 goals scored 23 have been from open play, 4 set pieces, 1 free kick and 5 penalties noting they've been awarded 6 to date. 

Top scorer is Kikas with 6, Abraham Marcus, Jovane and the now departed Sidny Lopes Cabral have 5 apiece. The rest shared between just six players. They currently average 1.2 goals scored per game and 1.7 conceded per game. Even a five year old can tell you that's bad maths. Over the winter transfer window we saw Moreirense sell their top goalscorer in Schettine, Gil Vicente with Pablo and whilst £5m for Sidny Lopes Cabral who they signed on a free transfer in July is a huge chunk of change for a club of Estrela's size, it's not hard to work out the detrimental effect these sales have on all these clubs. Since the turn of the year Estrela have won just two of eleven games and had I been writing this before their last game to Casa Pia that would have been a UB40 style one in ten. 

7 clean sheets so roughly 1:4. Their goals scored to Xg pretty much spot on with 33 to 33.3. Notes that Rio Ave is perfectly balanced at 28-28. They average 3.8 shots on target per match and have missed a total of 28 big chances. Xg conceded 42.8 compared to the actual figure of 45. 

Second most accurate long balls per match on average with 24.6 and third for most interceptions at 9.2. Fourth for total saves of 84 at an average of 3.1 per game. Everyone's good at something right no matter how damning a set of statistics those might read? Unfortunately they've also conceded the third highest total of penalties with 9. Eighth highest total of fouls per match on 14.8, eighth highest for bookings with 66 total and sixth highest for sending's off with 4 to date. 

Goalkeeper Renan Ribeiro one of just five players in the entire league after Matchday 27 to have played every minute of their respective clubs campaign. The ex-lion not the only familiar name to Sportinguista's in the Estrela squad. Diogo Pinto joined in the summer but with Ribeiro having played every minute in the league to date, he's been limited to 90 minutes in the Taça de Portugal. Jovane Cabral still there who we've already mentioned above. That total number is dwindling though with Miguel Lopes and Alan Ruiz having both now left. Diogo Travossos was on loan with them and Nani had joined before deciding to hang up his boots for good. 

We pick up Estrela's season after Matchday 12 against the lions recapping that after 11 games they'd won just twice against AVS at home 3-0 and Casa Pia 5-3 away, drawn 5 and lost 4.

Matchday 13 - Arouca (H) Goals from Kikas (28) and Marcus (33) gave Estrela a 2-0 lead. Fukui cut the deficit on 58 but a Pinho goal 2 minutes from time completed a 3-1 win to make it just their 3rd of the season. Xg a massive 3.33 to 0.59. Estrela miss 2 of 4 big chances, Arouca failed to register a single one.

Matchday 14 - Porto (A) Despite a Marcus goal on 59 equalising Aghehowa's opener from the penalty spot on 16, Estrela unable to come way with anything against the league leaders as they lost 3-1. Moura restored the lead on 62 and a Sidny Lopes Cabral own goal on 72 ensures their defeat. Xg 2.95 to just 0.21. Porto scored both their big chances, Estrela unsurprisingly given their Xg didn't create a single one.

Matchday 15 - Moreirense (H) Points shared in a 0-0 draw. Xg 0.87 to 1.14. Estrela miss their 1 big chance, Moreirense both of theirs.

Matchday 16 - Famalicão (A) An electric opening half hour saw Fama take the lead after 7 minutes through a Patrick own goal on 7. Kikas make it 1-1 on 9, Jovane gave the visitors the lead on 23 before Sorisso made it 2-2 on 26. Jovane completed his brace on 50 for a 3-2 win. XG 2.45 to 0.70. Fama missed 2 of 3 big chances, Estrela 1 of 2.

Matchday 17 - Braga (H) The northerners went ahead through a Moutinho penalty on 11 minutes. Kikas equalised 4 minutes later. Navarro restored Braga's lead on 50 and Zalazar made it 3-1 on 63. Jovane with his 3rd goal in 2 games made it 3-2 on 68 and Marcus secured a point when he made it 3-3 on 72. Xg 1.05 to 3.27. Estrela score both their big chances. Braga miss 2 of 5. 

Matchday 18 - Estoril (H) Only a mere hint of what was to come a Carvalho made it 0-1 after just 2 minutes. The game really changed when Abraham Marcus was shown a red card on 44 to reduce Estrela to ten men. Begraoui made it 0-2 on 50, 0-3 with a 53rd minute penalty, Marques made it 0-4 on 64 and Begraoui completed his hat-trick on 69 to complete a 5-0 Estoril rout. Xg 0.19 to 2.17. 0 big chances for the home side, Estoril score 3 of 4.

Matchday 19 - Benfica (A) After a 5-0 hammering the week before, their misery was compunded with another 4-0 drubbing in the Dérbi. Pavlidis opened the scoring on 41 and made it 2-0 from the penalty spot on 54. If that wasn't bad enough for them their former player Sidny Lopes Cabral made it 3-0 just 2 minutes later. Anisio Cabral scored the final goal 7 minutes before the end of time to make it 9 goals conceded in just 2 games. Xg 2.53 to 0.13. Benfica score 2 of their 3 big chances, Estrela missed their only 1 which was one of just 3 attempts over the course of the 90. 

Matchday 20 - Alverca (A) A van Hooijdonk penalty ten minutes before time gave the visitors the lead and they looked to be heading towards 3 valuable points until Garcia's equaliser 4 minutes from time to make it 1-1 and the points were shared in the Dérbi. Xg 1.12 to 0.91. Estrela scored their 1 big chance, Alverca missed 1 of 2.

Matchday 21 - Santa Clara (H) A Jovane goal on 58 gives Estrela a 1-0 win. XG 0.94 to 1.26. Santa miss both their big chances, importantly Estrela scored 1 of their 3.

Matchday 22 - Vitória (A) Despite going ahead on 9 minutes through Moreira, Balieiro (63) and Sousa (67) give the home side a 2-1 win. Xg 1.42 to 1.22. Both sides miss 1 of 2 big chances.

Matchday 23 - Tondela (H) A Bebeto penalty after just 3 minutes and a scond from Henryque 16 minutes before the end of time give the visitors a 2-0 win. Xg 0.94 to 1.36. Estrela miss their only big chance, Tondela score 1 of 2.

Matchday 24 - AVS (A) Disappointment for Estrela against the leagues bottom club as they come away with just a 0-0 draw. Xg 0.76 to 0.77. AVS miss their 1 big chance, Estrela both of theirs.

Matchday 25 - Gil Vicente (H) A Murilo penalty on 13 gives Gil a 1-0 lead. Jovane equalised on 53, Marcus made it 2-1 on 66 but the lead didn't last long as García made it 2-2 just 2 minutes later and the points shared. XG 1.22 to 1.91. Gil scored both their big chances, Estrela missed 2 of 4.

Matchday 26 - Rio Ave (A) A Blesa brace (26 and 47) gives the home side a 2-0 lead. Pinho pulled one back to make it 2-1 on 64 but Estrela unable to prevent another loss. Xg 2.64 to 1.36. Rio missed 4 of 6 bog chances, Estrela score their only big chance.

Matchday 27 - Casa Pia (H) Estrela completed the double in the Dérbi. A A first half Pinho brace (11 penalty and 45+2) and a Marcus goal on 36 gave them a 3-0 lead at the break. Doué completed the win with 15 minutes to go to make the score 4-0. Xg 3.69 to 0.65. Six big chances created for the home side, though they missed 4. Casa Pia missed their only one.

Matchday 27 - Nacional (A) To be updated.

So seven games to play for the side from Amadora in a season which one imagines should see them avoid relegation once more with things at the time of writing very much in their own hands, Nacional result willing. Every fan wants to see their club be successful but going back to my opening point about football burnout, I am slightly envious of fans of Estrela and can't help thinking a 35 game season would be much nicer. By my maths Sporting had played game 35 of their season by February 5th and still had three months worth of games still to play. We don't need two semi final legs in the Taça de Portugal and I'd still be writing that if we had lost to FC Porto last month. We don't need an extended Champions League group phase or two home and away ties in the subsequent rounds. Sporting will be taking on an Estrela side who've played 29 matches and they have this game sandwiched in between home and away ties to Arsenal. I look at José Fonte at Casa Pia who at 42 years young has played 1,437 minutes this campaign and I can't envisage any of our current squad being able to still play into their early 40s. As sad as it is for Hjulmand to miss out on the World Cup with Denmark you imagine with a new born baby it will be a blessing in disguise especially when he's about to uproot all their lives with a move away. How many injuries to players need to occur before something finally changes? Sadly I suspect it won't ever matter at all now. 

In the markets

Estrela TBC
Draw TBC
Sporting CP TBC