Estrela da Amadora 1 Sporting CP 2

Estrela da Amadora v Sporting CP  
March 29^th, 2024
Estádio José Gomes
Matchday 26

The Warm Up

Dreams last until they die – Come Sunday May 19th the title winners of the 2023/24 season will be officially known and with it qualification for the new style Swiss model Champions League. It’s hard to envisage that the winner will come from outside of the capital city at the time of writing with Porto six points off Benfica in second and seven off Sporting who still have that game in hand over both their rivals after the Famalicão postponement.

Nine games remain for Sporting, eight for Benfica. The neighbours 8 are made up of 5 at home and 3 away. They kick off their bid for the Championship at home to Chaves who’ve won a solitary game all season away. Sandwiched in between the second leg of the Taça and the first leg of the Europa tie against Marseille is the Dérbi at the José Alvalade; Three games that will make or break their season for sure. In the run-in, the only other opponents of any note are Braga at home. It’s hard to believe they won’t pick up maximum points against Chaves, Moreirense, Arouca and Rio Ave at home and similarly Farense and Famalicão away. In my mind that gives them a worst case scenario of 82 points and a potential maximum of 88 if they were to win all 8. Sporting of course have the Dérbi, the Clássico and a home game against a dangerous Vitória. If they’re to be crowned champions then they’ll have overcome the trickier run in. I was going to go into a more detailed breakdown but the maths suddenly got a little depressing in my tiny pessimistic mind. One should also bear in mind that the head to head record will determine the Champions if both sides finish level on points so a win in the Dérbi is all the more imperative and of course it becomes that mythical six pointer or Sox pointer if my autocorrect had its way. If it carries any importance Sporting are ⅖ to be crowned champions against 7/4 for the neighbours. I’m not convinced of those numbers. 71.43% Vs 36.36% in respects of probability.

Sporting travel to the Estádio José Gomes for their first ever competitive visit following Estrela’s promotion to the top flight last season. They’re now three quarters through their debut season and going into the game sit 13th, 3 points above the relegation play off place. Survival chances it appears will be dependent on their home record having won 5 games at home compared to a solitary victory on the road. Interestingly whilst doing the buildup to the reverse fixture I’d missed the fact the club's majority owner is the publicity shy Patrice Evra. There's another true irony for you Alanis if ever you’re reading these posts. It’s not quite David Beckham with Inter Miami but you’d imagine with 14 million followers on IG the connection must bear some fruit for the club and you’d think his ownership would be more well publicised hence the irony comment. Maybe it is on his IG, I don’t use it so wouldn’t know. What I do know is that when you’re competing for eyes with Sporting and Benfica amongst your closest neighbours you’re going to need any help you can get to generate revenues and put bums on seats. The club’s average attendance over their 13 home games is currently 3,846 against a capacity of 9,288. Even the visits of Benfica and Porto have not seen a sell out (6,398 and 5,796) so the visit of Sporting will be another important night for revenues for them if nothing else.

Averaging a solitary goal per game Estrela take on a Sporting side who’ve now scored 75 times fresh from their 6-1 win at home to Boavista so they’ll be under no illusions of the task they face. That being said they did manage to score twice in the reverse fixture which would finish 3-2. Sporting’s goals coming from Bragança, Edwards and Paulinho.

Off the field, talk has started about Gyökeres replacement which has an ominous tone to it given before the international break they were talking up the prospect of renewing his contract on larger wages. I guess it’s like the Portuguese football equivalent of Homes Under the Hammer; Buy relatively cheap, make him look better and flip it him quickly as you can whilst the market is good. There were a few comparative stats online during the international break about his goal involvements this season. I’m pretty sure they said it was 50 in total. To put that figure more into context, that’s half of 100 and 25 doubled. In other words pretty pointless as a number. I for one am not going to do what other outlets have done and show it against the total of Harry Kane as an example because he’s plying his trade in the Bundesliga and I’m pretty sure if he was playing up front for Sporting he'd either have scored 40 or be pushing that figure closely still w’th 9 games to go. Those types of comparison are as much use as possession stats to try win an argument about which team should have won. Possession is shown by the metric of passes made by each side expressed as a % and if your back three taps it amongst themselves and the goalkeeper 150 times a game it’s always going to skew those figures beyond belief. Anyway coming back from that tangent, yes Gyökeres looks phenomenal playing for Sporting, yes 22 goals is a great return so far but he got 21 in the Championship last season which is a harder league than the Portuguese top flight averaging a goal just over every two games. If someone wants to pay his buyout clause of €100m then the club should take it because if he goes to the Premier League it will be a real step up and we may see why clubs didn’t want to take the chance on him last summer – Or, he may well flourish and €100m looks the bargain of the decade but I won’t be watching, my eyes will be firmly fixed on the man brought in to replace him. However I will wish the lad well and say obrigado. Bas Dost got 34 goals in 30 in his debut season and I don’t remember anyone offering €100m for his services. 27 in 29 the next season and still they went – well yeah it’s Portugal. So he went have another 15 in 18 and he said can I have a pay rise and someone went nah and sold the bugger for tuppence ha’penny to the Eintracht Frankfurt in the Bundesliga and he forgot to pack his goalscoring acumen and his career took a spectacular nose dive from a great height. Well when you’re as tall as a giraffe it will naturally fall from a great height. I’m odd I know when I write this but genuinely I’ll be more gutted to have seen Bas Dost go than I would for Gyökeres to go with a fee of €100m attached, even with Coventry receiving a sell on fee from that figure. Sarabia got 15 in 29 and his reward the following season at PSG was to play a total of 2 games so a good season in Portugal is never a valid metric of future success. Couldn’t you have just written that last line and scrapped the rest? Probably but I needed the rest to get to that line. Like a maths exam – always show your working out. Oh but for clarity if you offer €40m you can fuck off. I don’t actually want to sell him but I do figure €100m minus sell on fees is decent business.

For now whatever happens in the summer with departures from the squad it’s back to trotting out the one of the oldest clichés in book – it’s one game at a time.

The money markets

Estrela 12/1 = 7.69% probability chance of win
Sporting 1/5 = 83.33% probability chance of win 

Starting XI

Israel, Reis, Diomande, St Juste, Santos, Bragança, Morita, Geny, Paulinho, Gyökeres, Trincão.

Hjulmand is named amongst the substitutes as is Edwards as he returns from injury. Gonçalves joins Adán on the longer term injury list. No place for Coates who apparently has gastrointestinal issues. Too many Easter eggs for breakfast maybe?

First Half

Sporting start you’d imagine knowing the result of that lot down the road who won 1-0 to go back top of the table – for now – at least – we hope. Please let us start better than we did against Boavista my nerves are shot and we’ve not kicked off yet.

5 Nuno Santos freekick finds the head of Gyökeres who tries to direct it goalwards but it goes harmlessly wide for a goal kick

7 The home side have already conceded 3 fouls, it appears their game plan is to sit back and frustrate Sporting and stop them by any means necessary

10 Gyökeres fashions a chance for himself which brings a save low to the keepers right but never really tested him

15 Morita dispossessed in midfield and Estrela bolted like a horse who’d thrown its jockey in the grand national. Long range shot from Cordeiro brings a save from Israel and a follow up effort from Jabá is pushed out for a corner

16 GOAL Estrela 1 Sporting CP 0. Israel at fault again for the opener as he goes to punch and misses it totally. The ball hits the post from a Bucca header and falls to the same man who bundles it over the line for the opener. I’ve been saying it all season he’s not fucking good enough. Please tell me Adán is close to full fitness

21 Yellow shown in the direction of Reis for a late challenge who protests his innocence to no avail

22 GOAL Estrela 1 Sporting CP 1 as Paulinho heads home a Trincão cross from the right five yards out. I think that’s the first time either player has touched the ball in this half

24 Morita set through one on one with the keeper but his first touch was like a trampoline and the keeper saves the eventual shot and out for a corner. Sporting have woken up. Estrela had defended deep for the opening 22 have suddenly adopted a high line which Sporting have cut through twice with ease in as many minutes

30 Yellow shown to Cordeiro as Bragança is unceremoniously tripped. Freekick centrally from 30 yards

32 Nuno Santos curls the free kick past the wall and into the stand

33 Corner to Estrela brings a diving save low to the left from Israel from a Gaspar header. I’d suggest not conceding any more corners gentleman because they’re causing you all sorts of problems every time they get one

36 Aloisio shown the yellow for a lunging challenge studs up on Geny

38 Beautiful reverse pass by Geny in the box to release Trincão who floats the ball into the centre but Gaspar heads clear for a corner. Anything good has come from the right side so why do Sporting persist on playing it down the left so much for no end result?

40 GOAL Estrela 1 Sporting CP 2 Trincão with a mazy run from the right shot low from 20 yards. The keeper dived low to his right to save but could only parry it to Nuno Santos who tapped it home into the far corner like he was putting on the 18th to win the Open Championship. As I was saying about playing it down the right…

44 Game kicks off again having waited for flares thrown onto the pitch to die down. Good job it’s grass. There’ll be a lot of additional time to add

+4 shown

+1 Worrying signs as Morita goes down. You imagine Hjulmand will be out at half time warming up and the sensible option would be to replace him and not take any chances

+3 Shouts for handball as a Gyökeres shot bobbled up and hit a defender but his arms were down by his side so not sure why the fans were whistling there as nothing rightly given

Half time

Estrela 1 Sporting CP 2

Well we’re not doing it the easy way as we tick off another 45 in the title race. As the players depart the speakers kick in with the Black Eyed Peas singing I’ve got a feeling, tonight’s gonna be a good night. Well so far so good if only just for Sporting. Estrela fans sat there listening thinking are you taking the piss? Estrela will feel hard done by and could have just as easily gone in drawing or in fact leading this game. Let’s be honest if come May we’re where we would like to be then no one will give a monkeys what happened tonight. See me tiptoeing around trying not to mention you know what and potentially cursing it. However if we’re not then games like this will be pulled apart. The defence has to afford Israel more cover and they’ve been a real danger at corners and despite being lions, we’re not actually big cats with nine lives.

Second half

Inácio is stripped and ready and replaces Reis. Estrela get the second half underway.

46 Nuno Santos picks the ball up a yard inside the box. Beat his first man but his shot is blocked as two defenders converged in front of him. Apart from his goal that’s only thing of note he’s contributed so far in the entire game

50 Great transitional move from the right wing out to the left where Nuno Santos sees his shot saved by the keeper

52 Push in the box on Trincão but the referee waves his arms to say nothing doing as the Sporting fans whistle the decision once more. Sporting playing like a side that have not only been told to score a third but sooner rather than later

57 Gyökeres is now playing wider right and brings a save from a low shot from a tight angle pushed out for a corner

58 Gyökeres crashes the ball against the post from 16 yards but I’d be surprised if he wasn’t offside in the buildup had it gone in

62 I’ll be really disappointed if Paulinho doesn’t go into acting when he retires. Such a broad range of depth and emotion every time he gets fouled

64 Gaspar is acting as a one man wrecking crew. He follows up his challenge on Paulinho by taking Trincão and Bragança out in quick succession. He’s not afraid of getting stuck in and he looks like he was built by a wardrobe company. I’d bet on him in a Royal Rumble

66 Yellow shown as this half slowly descends into a game more resembling that of rugby. Ndo the player booked

70 Inácio has shored up the defence second half which I mention only because regular readers will know I’m not entirely convinced by him

72 This game is becoming farcical as one foul follows another

74 Paulinho launches himself at the far post but can’t turn the ball goalwards as it bounces over his outstretched leg and he lies on his back looking to the sky as if to say – come on give me a break please

78 Hjulmand and Esgaio come on to replace Morita and Geny

80 Freekick awarded two yards outside the Estrela box for a foul on Bragança. Sporting need to find a third

82 Gyökeres takes it and fires a shot which goes past the wall but straight at the keeper. Not great but still it was at least on target unlike some of the freekicks we’ve seen this season

83 Sporting counter attack through Trincão who has Gyökeres free to his right. He decides to shoot himself and his shot bends agonisingly past the post

85 My bum is going 20p 50p and let’s not even discuss my heart rate. Maybe I should have gone with the heart and not that my bum hole is twitching ten to the dozen. Too much information?

86 Another break in play as Paulinho goes down like he’s been shot with no one even close to him. That was just bizarre and Sporting will have half a minute down to ten men as he hobbles to the side. I’d not be surprised to see the board go up with plus six or seven minutes to be added

I think that says plus five. Joy of watching every game on a phone.

+1 Quaresma replaces Nuno Santos as Sporting try run the clock down. This is where you need Adrien and that other one who shares the name with an Italian plumber who now cannot be mentioned who were both masters at running down time

+4 Huge cheer goes up as the ball goes out for a Sporting corner which they’re in no hurry to take

+5 St Juste flattened and another huge cheer goes up. I’ve never heard a reaction like that for one of our players getting fouled

Finally with the clock showing 95’41 the final whistle blows

Full time

Estrela 1 Sporting CP 2

The Final Word

It’s a shame that Stephen Hawkin and Einstein have passed away because one of them could maybe have tried to explain how with every minute played of the second 45 felt more like 5. I cannot remember the last time I saw so many players in a Sporting shirt go to ground and time waste. I’m not an advocate of it from any team and I’d be a hypocrite if I condone it from my own. It got the job done though and another three points secured. Had Sporting got the third then Estrela I think would have crumbled but for what is quintessentially a Dérbi their players can hold their heads high despite the two losses as they’ve given Sporting as many problems over two games as any other side we’ve faced has this season.

Had Inácio played the full 90 he’d have been my man of the match. For all the worry in the second half on my part personally, now the whistle has blown I can say that actually apart from one moment where Israel collected the ball and made it look like he was trying to catch a ball covered in jelly, there wasn’t any issues at the back. He actually looked like the player the media keep hyping up and apart from one misplaced pass which he then corrected with a well timed tackle I couldn’t fault him. I like it when players ram my words back down my throat. Even Nuno Santos played better second half, although his opening 45 left a lot to be desired. However Inácio didn’t play the full 45 so for the second week on the trot my vote goes to Trincão who didn’t even make it onto the four players you could vote for online with the club last time out much to my disgust. Gyökeres looked like the football version of the wolf in the three little pigs. He huffed and he puffed and caused all sorts of problems for those marking him but couldn’t blow that last house down and add to his season’s goal tally. Paulinho found the net with a trademark header but offered little besides another master class in shit housery and play acting. I thought Morita did well in his link up play both halves and Bragança showed he has something in his locker but I’m still not convinced of what exactly that is. It could be a pair of socks he forgot to remove and in a fortnight’s time they’ll be stinking the place out. Geny once more showed glimpses of his potential. The reverse pass to Trincão was top drawer but he’s getting lumps kicked out of him which doesn’t help. To be fair if I was defending against him I’d not even get close enough to kick him. The one area of concern remains Israel. He has been at fault for both the last two goals conceded. Yes he made a couple of good saves tonight but he just flapped at the first goal from the corner with all the grace of an ostrich who’d been told he could fly only to realise that no he can’t. At some point it’s going to bite us in the arse. Murphy’s law. It’s why your toast drops buttered side down and with Israel at the breakfast table you’d better hope someone else is passing the plate to you. Still 3 points are 3 points and those 3 points see Sporting once more top of the table.