Sporting CP v Arsenal (Champions League Quarter Finals First Leg)
April 7th, 2026
Estádio José Alvalade
Champions League Quarter Finals
The warm up
Play the game, not the occasion.
Seems a simple enough premise when you break it down in six words doesn’t it? It’s what Bodø/Glimt had
managed to do so well in the first leg of the Champions League round of 16 in
Norway when they put the lions to the sword with consummate ease. Yet for all
intents and purposes for some unexplained reason, they then played the occasion in the Estádio José Alvalade,
whilst Sporting sensibly played the game, and then some, to turn the tie completely
on its head. Whilst the Portuguese media rightly went to town on the achievement
of becoming only the fourth side in Champions League history to complete a
remontada from a 3-0 deficit in the first leg, in England at least the
aftertaste was certainly sour. The lions had mauled this season’s media
darlings and the love in had been unceremoniously stopped. No credit to be bestowed
upon Sporting for their incredible achievement, just a hark back to the
memories of wins against Atletico, Manchester City and Internazionale for the Norwegians. Then fast
forward to an expectancy that Arsenal progress in the Quarter Finals and talk
of who they’ll likely meet in the semi-finals and possibly the final itself at
the Puskás Arena on Saturday May, 2026. Sections of their fan base talking the
same party line, as they did last season having beaten Real Madrid 5-1 on
aggregate, with all the talk of who they’d meet in the final, clearly underestimating
Paris Saint Germain who duly knocked the North Londoners out in the semi-finals
3-1 on aggregate. Football games are not played on paper. Whether Arsenal care
to admit it or not, Lisbon has not just a dog in the fight, it has a pride of
lions to contend with, one who in not too distant memory they already underestimated
at their peril.
The world over you’ll find financial disparity between the
clubs at the top and the bottom of the respective leagues. Portugal suffers
from this problem the same as any other league, but then again Portugal suffers as a
whole when compared to the financial might of the Premier League. For decades
Portuguese clubs have been renowned for having to survive by selling their best
talent to the highest bidder and should this day ever stop, then Portuguese
football will find itself up shit’s creek without the proverbial paddle. It’s
not hard to work out why Arsenal start this tie as clear favourites and I’m not
here to try and convince you otherwise. They rank seventh on the 29th edition of the Deloitte Football Money League which is the annual publication
which profiles the highest revenue generating clubs in world football. The
2024/25 season saw the top 20 league clubs in the world generate a combined
revenues of over €12 billion of which Arsenal accounted for €821.7m an increase
of 15% on the previous accounting period. Where were Sporting on in that
equation you may ask? Probably handing out the drinks at the reception, as
close to being in the top 20 as the best binoculars on the market will allow
you to see. Arsenal’s revenue dwarfed that of the lions for the same period
which stood at approximately €148 million which equates to roughly 18% of the
North Londoners revenue. It’s no exaggeration to point out that Arsenal’s highest
paid players will earn in a month more than many of our squad will take home in
their annual salary. The difference here is night and day between the two
clubs.
Up until Sunday last Arsenal had dominated on all four
fronts on which they were challenging. Top of the Premier League table, through
to the final of the Carabao Cup, an FA Cup quarter final awaiting away to Southampton
and of course their trip to Lisboa for the quarter finals of the Champions
League. Talk abound of the quadruple. Now they’ll have to adjust that talk to the
treble having lost at Wembley to Pep’s Manchester City 2-0. Maybe they play the
kids in the FA Cup before the game in Lisboa and underestimate the Saints and pay the
price. Maybe they underestimate the lions in Lisboa with one eye on Bournemouth
the following game though I imagine their plan is more likely to entail trying to
smash Sporing in the first leg and play a weakened team at home with Manchester
City circling around like vultures who they’ll face directly after the second
leg. As we all know though, nothing is certain in football, there are far too many variables to
control.
We only have only the smallest sample size on how topping the Champions League Group
Stage is of any benefit to those who finish in first place. Last season
Liverpool finished top with a record of played 8, won 7, lost 1, GF 17, GA 5.
In fairness to them the 1 only occurred because they played a weakened team
away to PSV Eindhoven on matchday 8. Despite having finished atop the table,
they promptly lost to the eventual winners PSG in the round of 16 on penalties.
So in short, fat lot of good it did them. So this time around its Arsenal who
will provide the sample size having gone one better than their Premier League Counterparts
and won all 8 games. Goals for 23, goals against 4. In their ten games to date
in this seasons competition they’ve fallen behind once.
Let's take a look at their games to date in this seasons competition.
Matchday 1 – Athletic Club (A) – The Gunners started where
the lions ended, in Bilbao. Martinelli broke the deadlock finally on minute 71
and Trossard made sure of victory with a goal 4 minutes before time for a 2-0
win. Xg 0.35 to 1.28, Athletic Club didn’t create a single big chance, Arsenal
missed 2 of 3. Clean sheet number one.
Matchday 2 – Olympiacos (H) – Martinelli amongst the goals again, this time
scoring in a much healthier 10th minute, however the Gunners had
to wait until the first minute of additional time to add a second through Saka.
Second straight 2-0 win, second clean sheet. Xg 2.90 to 0.50. The Greeks to their
credit at least created 3 big chances which clearly they missed all 3 of. Arsenal
however created seven by reply, though importantly for the Greek Champions,
they contrived to miss six of those chances.
Matchday 3 – Atlético Madrid (H) – If anyone was going to give the Gunners problems
in their 8 league matches you’d have put forward Diego Simeone’s side as candidates
and a fat lot of good that would have done you to as the North Londoners ran
riot after half time. Gabriel scored the first on 56, Martinelli scored on 63
to make it 2-0 and a certain Swede with connections to the lions made it first
3-0 on 66 and then 4-0 on 69. Be impressed that I’ve managed 1,100 words and
still not mentioned him by name. Xg 2.19 to 0.67, Arsenal again creating a glut
of big chances with 6 in total, but once more guilty of missing the majority
with 4 going astray. The Spaniards missed their 1 sole big chance. Clean sheet
number 3.
Matchday 4 – Slavia Prague (A) - Saka put the visitors ahead with a penalty on
31 minutes. Merino scored a brace in the second half (45 and 67) for a comfortable
3-0 win. 360 minutes played, Arsenal still to concede a goal. Xg 0.47 to 1.81,
the Czech’s didn’t create a single big chance, Arsenal importantly not only created
3 but scored all 3 to boot.
Matchday 5 – Bayern München (H) – The script writers would have been going into
overtime for Harry Kane’s return to North London to overturn the apple cart. Their
words however would have been wasted as Timber put the Gunners ahead on 21 minutes. It
was the fresh faced youngster Lennart Karl who equalised for the Bundesliga Champions
after 31 minutes and thus became the first player to find a way past the Gunners
backline in 391 minutes of Champions League football. Madueke made it 2-1 on
68, Martinelli scored his forth of the campaign to give the Londoners a 3-1 win
and send Kane back to Bavaria without even having taken a single shot. Xg 3.11
to 0.65, 7 big chances for Arsenal of which they missed another 4 to the 3 they converted. Karl scored Bayern’s only big chance. So whilst no clean sheet, Arsenal
had overcome their biggest test to date, on paper at least, not so much it appears
on the field itself.
Matchday 6 – Club Brugge (A) The Belgians the third of four of Arsenal’s
opponents who would overlap with the lions (Athletic Club as previously
mentioned, Bayern and Kairat Almaty making up the others). A Madueke brace (24
and 46) was complimented by another goal for Martinelli in the competition on
55 to complete a 3-0 away win. Clean sheet number 5, Xg 1.10 to 2.99. The
Belgians missed their only big chance, Arsenal missed 4 of 5 big chances.
Matchday 7 – Internazionale (A) Another potential hurdle for the Gunners to
finally fall at, but they once more successfully navigated any potential
dangers that last season’s Champions League runners up presented. They went ahead
after 9 minutes through Jesus only for Susic to level on 17. Jesus completed
his brace to put Arsenal 2-1 ahead on the half hour and you know who scored 7
minutes before the end of time to make it 3-1. Xg 1.36 to 2.14. Inter missed their
1 big chance, Arsenal scored 2 of their 3. The Italians with only the second goal
scored against the Londoners in this years group phase but that was scant
consolation to them.
Matchday 8 – Kairat Almaty (H) Kairat’s debut into the Champions League had
ended with a 4-1 defeat to the lions and by the time these two sides met on
Matchday 8, they had picked up a solitary point and sat bottom of the table
with Arsenal at the top with 7 victories. When you know who opened the scoring
after just 2 minutes the minnows must have been fearing the worst. However
Jorginho equalised after 6 minutes from the penalty spot and little old Kairat
became only the third side to score against the Gunners defence. Their resilience
didn’t last long in fairness as Havertz made it 2-1 on 14 minutes and
Martinelli once more amongst the goals making it 3-1 after 37. However
Ricardinho did pull one back 3 minutes into additional time at the end of the
90 to make it 3-2 which was how it finished and incredibly the side bottom of
the table left the only side who managed to score more than once against Arsenal, who is turn had become the only side to have won all their eight matches. Xg 3.94 to 1.11, Arsenal created
TEN big chances and missed EIGHT. Kairat created 2, scored 2.
Finishing top clearly allowed Arsenal to avoid the playoffs
and they were rewarded with a two legged tie against the 2023/24 Bundesliga
Champions.
Round of 16 first leg – Bayer Leverkusen (A) – Andrich became
the first player in this seasons competition to put the opposition ahead against the Gunners with a goal immediately after the restart from half time. Havertz on his return to
his former club converted a penalty on 88 minutes to salvage a 1-1 draw to take
back to North London in the return leg. Xg 0.85 to 1.64, the Germans scored
their only big chance, Arsenal missed 1 of their 2.
Round of 16 first leg – Bayer Leverkusen (H) Any nerves were settled relatively
early on as Eze scored his first ever champions league goal on 35 minutes. Declan
Rice added a second on 62 and the 3-1 aggregate win enough to setup a date with
the lions in the quarter finals. 21 attempts for the Gunners still only
resulted in an Xg of 1.70 compared to 0.52 for the visitors and 1 solitary big
chance which they also happened to miss as did Bayer in turn.
Now if you think I’m being churlish for having gotten 2,000
words in and not yet once mentioned Viktor Gyökeres by name, well what did you
expect? We all know what will drive the narrative going into these two games.
He left in the summer under acrimonious circumstances having burned all his
bridges. They should have built the man a statue and received a welcome befitting
of a hero who led Sporting to back to back league titles. Instead he dumped his
then girlfriend Inês Aguiar, went on strike to force his transfer through to
Arsenal, burned all his bridges and seemingly has paid the price for a lack of
a pre-season and cost himself a couple of million in wages having taken a
reduction in his proposed salary to get the move over the line. If I had money
to burn I’d pay for 50,000 Aguiar masks to be distributed on the day, but I don’t, and yet the thought was there and often that’s what counts right? With Sporting he
scored against every single Portuguese team he played against and few would bet against
him completing the set over the course of the 180 minutes which are to follow.
The only person who’ll get a worse welcome would be his agent Hasan Cetinkaya
but I imagine he won’t find himself on the guest list in Lisboa anyways and
even if he was he’d probably do well to swerve an appearance altogether.
If you’re a Sportinguista reading this you will hope for the
best, prepare for the worst and take whatever comes. None of us are kidding
ourselves that the lions are likely to book a place in the semi-finals of the
Champions League but we do expect at the very least that they ensure they play
the game and not the occasion and give a good account of themselves. They won’t
be helped by the suspension of captain Morten Hjulmand for the first leg. His absence
will be as keenly felt as that of Maxi Araújo in the first leg against Bodø. Whilst Sporting
may have completed that rare of remontada’s in the last round, if they go to
North London 3-0 down, they won’t have a cat’s chance in hell of repeating it
this time around even if Arsenal have one or both eyes on Manchester City. The
lions will need to repeat their efforts from the 5-0 against Bodø and then
some.
Arsenal fans will look to last season’s 5-1 thumping of Sporting in the group
phase as evidence that they’ll progress into the semi-finals with the minimum
of fuss and effort. They maybe right. Yet Sportinguista’s will point to the
fact that the defeat came under the stewardship of João Perreira, a game which
was his first as a coach in the Champions League and only his second in charge
of the lions. Technically speaking without his UEFA Pro Licence, he was never
really in charge at all. The gap between Amarante at home in the Taça de
Portugal and Arsenal in the Champions League is as big as any you’d find in world
football. The gap between Arsenal and Sporting is cavernous in itself. As of
August 2025 it’s reported that Arsenal have a gross transfer spend under their
mister Mikel Arteta of €900m, or €1 billion if you throw in agents fees for
good measure. Sporting probably won’t have even paid half of either figure
combined for every transfer they’ve ever made in the clubs history. So whilst Pereira's first game ended in a 6-0 win, you'd not have put any money on him leading Sporting in his first actual test as the new mister to a win on a boat still rocking violently from the force of its skipper Amorim having jumped ship for Manchester. It was a
one sided affair, you cannot disguise the truth even if the match statistics, scoreline
aside, may suggest otherwise. Proof again if ever any was needed how pointless
possession is as a metric. It is after all only the percentage of passes
completed by both sides, but it read 52% in favour of Arsenal’s 48%. Total
attempts 19 to 13 but for their 13 read an Xg of 3.89 to 1.05. Arsenal created
five big chances and scored all five, Sporting didn’t create a single one and
within eight matches, the new mister had been replaced by the current incumbent Rui
Borges. If you took his record in last season’s tournament it wasn’t much
better than that of Pereira’s but at that point the lions pretty much sacked
the competition off, instead choosing to focus on the chance of securing a
second league title and were suffering from a wealth of injuries to boot. This time around with his feet firmly under
the table, he took the lions to a 7th place finish in the group
stage, winning 5 of his 8 games, drawing 1 and losing 2, GF 17, GA 11. We
witnessed the horror show that followed against Bodø and the miracle of the
remontada. He’s nobodies fool and knows the lions will need to play their perfect
game not just once but twice, to dream the impossible dream.
March 2023 the two sides met in the Europa League round of 16. Saliba put the
Gunners ahead on 21 minutes, Inácio equalised with a header on 33 and Paulinho
turned the game on its head poking home a deflection in the six yard box to
make it 2-1 to Sporting on 54. Morita turned the ball into his own net with the
most unfortunate of deflections from the edge of the area on 61 minutes and the
sides shared a 2-2 draw. Sporting guilty of missing 2 of 4 big chances, Arsenal
missed 2 of 3. Xg 2.21 to 1.99. Come the replay Xhaka made the mistake of thumbing his nose like a four year old as he made it
Arsenal 1 Sporting CP 0 after 18 minutes. Pedro Gonçalves, clearly irked, responded
by firing home from five yards inside the Arsenal half to send the ball sailing
over the head of Aaron Ramsdale and both the ball and the keeper into the
net to make it 1-1 on 61 minutes. Even when the lions were reduced to ten 3
minutes before the end of extra time with Ugarte sent off for a second booking, they held on to take the tie to penalties.
St Juste made it 1-0, Ødegaard 1-1. Esgaio made it 2-1, Saka 2-2. Inácio 3-2, Trossard
3-3. Arthur 4-3, Martinelli misses, still 4-3. Cometh the hour, cometh the man,
Nuno Santos completes the job for Ruben Amorim’s side and the lions had knocked
Arsenal out of Europe.
So don’t tell us that we can’t win, can’t progress. We know in all likelihood
that it’s nothing more than a mere pipe dream. That our hopes and dreams will
be dashed and more than likely before the end of the 90 and by you know who.
Yet, this is football, you never know and above all else, play the game, the
jogo bonito, and not the occasion.
In the markets
Sporting CP 16/5
Draw 27/10
Arsenal 5/6
To qualify for the semi finals
Sporting CP 16/5
Arsenal 2/11
The Gunners with an implied probability of 84.6% of progressing through to the
semi-finals.
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